Ante récord de incursiones militares y una retórica más agresiva: ¿Qué tan factible es que China invada Taiwán?
Llevar a cabo este despliegue tendría grandes consecuencias económicas y sociales para el país asiático, ya que a pesar de contar con un mayor número de armamento, la contienda se extendería hacia otros aliados de la pequeña nación insular.
En las diminutas islas Penghu de Taiwán*, las bases de misiles instaladas junto a playas de arena blanca y bulliciosos mercados de pescado recuerdan la amenaza constante de un ataque de China. A pesar de la enorme diferencia militar entre ambos bandos, muchos analistas opinan que la ubicación de Taiwán, su terreno inhóspito y el apoyo estadounidense harían muy costosa, incluso demasiado, una invasión a gran escala de China.
La China comunista y Taiwán se separaron de facto en 1949, cuando las fuerzas nacionalistas derrotadas por Mao Tse-Tung se retiraron a esta isla. Pero Beijing considera este territorio, ahora gobernado democráticamente, como una provincia propia y está determinado a recuperarlo algún día, por la fuerza si fuera necesario. […]
«Si tuviéramos que enfrentarnos cara a cara militarmente, no tenemos ninguna opción», admite a AFP el almirante retirado Lee Hsi-min, que dirigió las Fuerzas Armadas de Taiwán hasta 2019. Pero los obstáculos de Rusia para tomar Ucrania son una advertencia para Beijing, a la vez que un ejemplo y una inspiración a Taipéi sobre cómo resistir a una invasión. […]
Los asaltos anfibios son sumamente difíciles. Si China quiere invadir y retener la isla, debería mover a cientos de miles de tropas además de equipamiento por el estrecho de Taiwán. Se trata de un trayecto de 130 kilómetros en su punto más cercano y en unas condiciones meteorológicas notoriamente duras, con dos estaciones de monzones. Esto deja apenas dos «ventanas de ataque» para una operación a gran escala, de mayo a julio y en octubre, según un informe del Colegio de Guerra Naval de Estados Unidos. […]
Y si las pequeñas y llanas islas periféricas pueden ser fáciles de ocupar para Beijing, ocurre justo lo contrario en la isla principal de Taiwán. La costa allí «es el sueño de un defensor hecho realidad», según Ian Easton, autor de «La amenaza de la invasión china». Él y sus colegas estiman que Taiwán solo dispone de 14 pequeñas playas donde practicar un desembarco que, además, están rodeadas de montañas, acantilados o una densa infraestructura urbana. […]
China ha invertido billones en mejorar sus capacidades militares en la última década y su superioridad teórica sobre Taiwán es aplastante. El Ejército Popular de Liberación (EPL) dispone de un millón de efectivos terrestres contra 88.000 de Taiwán, 6.300 tanques contra 800 y 1.600 aviones de combate contra 400, según el Pentágono estadounidense. […]
«China tiene que entender que sufrirá pérdidas tremendas y, aun así, puede que no sea capaz de ocupar Taiwán», dice Lee. «Así, China pensará que la mejor manera de resolver el problema de Taiwán es por medios pacíficos», añade. Hay un amplio abanico de opciones además de la invasión que Beijing podría emplear para poner de rodillas a Taipéi, incluyendo un bloqueo del estrecho de Taiwán, la anexión de las islas periféricas o la inhabilitación de sus sistemas militares y cibernéticos.
* También conocida como Formosa (del portugués ilha Formosa, «isla Hermosa»)
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